What changed in our projections

Every projection we moved this week, what moved it, and what we looked at and left alone. August 13, 2026, 2:01 PM ET

Position

51 projections moved across 27 decisions. 7 looked at and left alone.

Cousins remains the Raiders starter while Mendoza works as QB2. Reallocated the existing Raiders QB budget toward Cousins without changing team-level totals.

High evidenceSource
QBFernando MendozaQB31 → QB36−94.6
QBKirk CousinsQB35 → QB29+94.5

Pearsall is out for the 2026 season. His projected receiving opportunity was removed and redistributed across the remaining San Francisco pass catchers.

High evidenceSource
WRRicky PearsallWR86 → WR203out, zeroed−75.4
WRMike EvansWR33 → WR27+20.1
WRDe'Zhaun StriblingWR98 → WR78+16.6
WRDeebo Samuel Sr.WR76 → WR65+16.4
WRChristian KirkWR94 → WR77+16.3
WRDemarcus RobinsonWR144 → WR138+6.6

Minnesota named Murray the starter. Reallocated the existing Vikings QB passing and rushing budget toward Murray without changing the team-level totals.

High evidenceSource
QBJ.J. McCarthyQB36 → QB37−44.8
QBKyler MurrayQB27 → QB20+44.7

Brazzell is out for the 2026 season. His receiving opportunity was removed and redistributed within the Carolina receiver room.

High evidenceSource
WRChris Brazzell IIWR136 → WR204out, zeroed−33.5
WRTetairoa McMillanWR22 → WR19+10.4
WRJalen CokerWR71 → WR66+8.4
WRBrycen TremayneWR201 → WR167+6.6
WRXavier LegetteWR114 → WR102+6.2

Hubbard is week-to-week with a legitimate hamstring injury. Carolina remains confident he will be ready for Week 1, so no games were deducted; a modest share of existing backfield opportunity moved to Brooks while team totals stayed unchanged.

High evidenceSource
RBChuba HubbardRB31 → RB35−11.1

Hubbard is week-to-week and Brooks is expected to receive significant preseason work. Increased Brooks modestly without adding Carolina team opportunity or assuming Hubbard misses regular-season games.

High evidenceSource
RBJonathon BrooksRB40 → RB36+11.1

Brazzell is out for the 2026 season. His receiving opportunity was removed and redistributed within the Carolina receiver room. Also corrected an invalid negative rushing-yard value.

High evidenceSource
WRJohn Metchie IIIWR64 → WR61+3.4

Brooks is healthy and sharing first-team work. Increased his expected role modestly while preserving Carolina backfield opportunity totals.

Medium evidenceSource
RBJonathon BrooksRB51 → RB40+29.4
RBChuba HubbardRB27 → RB31reconciled−15.7
RBAJ DillonRB57 → RB64reconciled−13.8

Boston has generated strong first-team camp buzz and growing trust. Increased his target share modestly and reconciled the Browns receiving totals.

Medium evidenceSource
WRDenzel BostonWR63 → WR53+29.0
WRJerry JeudyWR47 → WR52reconciled−9.7
WRKC ConcepcionWR53 → WR58reconciled−7.8
WRIsaiah BondWR148 → WR151reconciled−3.8

Golden has continued to earn a larger first-team role in camp. Shifted a modest share of Green Bay receiver opportunity toward him.

Medium evidenceSource
WRMatthew GoldenWR44 → WR40+17.8
WRJayden ReedWR36 → WR39reconciled−6.6
WRChristian WatsonWR32 → WR33reconciled−6.0
WRSavion WilliamsWR106 → WR110reconciled−4.9

Tracy is handling most two-minute work and the backfield is trending toward a 1A/1B split. Narrowed the workload gap modestly.

Medium evidenceSource
RBCam SkatteboRB23 → RB26−15.7
RBTyrone Tracy Jr.RB48 → RB42+15.7

Seattle camp reports point to Shaheed as a major factor and frequent two-TE personnel. Shifted modest opportunity toward Shaheed and Barner while leaving JSN unchanged.

Medium evidenceSource
WRRashid ShaheedWR59 → WR54+15.5
WRCooper KuppWR75 → WR84reconciled−10.5
TEAJ BarnerTE22 → TE19+8.9
WRTory HortonWR103 → WR116reconciled−7.9
TEElijah ArroyoTE41 → TE45reconciled−6.5

Lemon continues to miss practice with a hamstring issue after repeated spring and camp absences. Reduced his season-long target share modestly for early-role risk, without projecting missed regular-season games.

Medium evidenceSource
WRMakai LemonWR57 → WR60−13.4

Ferguson has been heavily involved throughout Cowboys camp. Added a modest target bump and reconciled the Dallas receiving totals.

Medium evidenceSource
TEJake FergusonTE11 → TE8+10.1
WRRyan FlournoyWR82 → WR89reconciled−6.3
WRKaVontae TurpinWR124 → WR126reconciled−4.2

Boston has generated strong first-team camp buzz and growing trust. Increased his target share modestly and reconciled the Browns receiving totals. Also corrected an invalid negative rushing-yard value.

Medium evidenceSource
WRCedric TillmanWR84 → WR93reconciled−7.7

Lemon's modest target reduction was redistributed within the Eagles receiver room. Wicks received the largest share because he has already taken advantage of additional camp reps.

Medium evidenceSource
WRDontayvion WicksWR92 → WR83reconciled+6.5

Received a small share of the Eagles targets removed from Lemon. Cooper has continued to impress in camp and Nick Sirianni acknowledged the possibility of offensive playing time.

Medium evidenceSource
WRDarius CooperWR189 → WR174reconciled+3.1

Watson will start preseason Game 1, while Sanders will start Game 2. Todd Monken says the competition remains open, so Cleveland's existing QB allocation is unchanged.

Medium evidenceSource
QBDeshaun WatsonQB33 → QB33watch, no change+0.0

Sanders will start preseason Game 2 after Watson starts Game 1. The coach says the competition remains open, so Cleveland's existing QB allocation is unchanged.

Medium evidenceSource
QBShedeur SandersQB32 → QB32watch, no change+0.0

Douglas is listed with the first unit on Miami’s current depth chart. Applied a conservative target-share increase, not a full breakout projection.

Medium-Low evidenceSource
WRCaleb DouglasWR121 → WR90+21.9
WRChris BellWR91 → WR100reconciled−6.8
WRJalen TolbertWR89 → WR97reconciled−6.7
WRTutu AtwellWR129 → WR134reconciled−5.7
WRTheo Wease Jr.WR70 → WR75reconciled−3.4

Tuten and Rodriguez are listed as co-starters on the initial unofficial depth chart. Made only a small workload shift because the depth chart is preliminary.

Medium-Low evidenceSource
RBChris Rodriguez Jr.RB49 → RB44+9.1
RBBhayshul TutenRB25 → RB25−8.8

Received a small share of the Eagles targets removed from Lemon. No independent breakout adjustment was applied.

Medium-Low evidenceSource
WRHollywood BrownWR98 → WR94reconciled+3.3

Rehab is progressing and he could begin 7-on-7/11-on-11 work soon, but he has not yet completed full team work. Current recovery discount remains unchanged.

Medium-Low evidenceSource
WRMalik NabersWR24 → WR24watch, no change+0.0

Groin soreness is being monitored, and possible discipline remains unresolved. No regular-season absence is established, so no games or targets were deducted.

Uncertain evidenceSource
WRPuka NacuaWR1 → WR1watch, no change+0.0

Groin injury is expected to keep him out of camp work at least this week, but no regular-season absence is established. Possible discipline is also unresolved, so the baseline remains unchanged.

Uncertain evidenceSource
RBJosh JacobsRB13 → RB13watch, no change+0.0

Expected to miss the preseason with a groin injury, but current reporting still points toward regular-season availability. No games deducted.

Uncertain evidenceSource
WRLuther Burden IIIWR20 → WR21watch, no change+0.0

Toe injury may cost preseason time, but the exact severity and regular-season impact are not established. No games or targets deducted yet.

Uncertain evidenceSource
WREmeka EgbukaWR20 → WR20watch, no change+0.0

How to read this

Changes are grouped by what caused them, because one piece of news usually moves several players. A receiver ruled out for the season raises everybody else in that receiving corps, and those are one decision rather than five.

Updated
The projection moved on this evidence.
Reconciled
Moved to stay consistent with another change. A backfield only has so many carries, so raising one back lowers another.
Out, zeroed
Ruled out for the season. The projection is set to zero and his opportunity is redistributed.
Watch, no change
We looked at it and moved nothing. Uncertain injuries and possible discipline are monitored rather than automatically deducted.

Evidence is our own read on how firm the information is, not a measure of how much a projection moved. A confirmed starting change is high; a camp report that a player looks good is not.

Common questions

How often do the projections change?

Whenever the information behind them does. In the preseason that is usually a few times a week, driven by starting decisions, confirmed injuries and depth chart moves. This page records each one with the reason and a source.

Why did a player's projection change when nothing happened to him?

Because something happened to a team-mate. A backfield has a fixed number of carries and a passing game a fixed number of targets, so raising one player lowers another. Those changes are marked Reconciled and grouped with the decision that caused them.

Does a camp report automatically change a projection?

No. A confirmed starting change or a season-ending injury moves a projection. A report that somebody looks good in camp is weaker evidence and usually moves a projection less, or not at all. The evidence label on each change says which.

What does Watch, no change mean?

That we looked at something and did not move anything. Uncertain injuries and possible discipline are monitored rather than automatically deducted, because guessing at a suspension length is not analysis.